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‘A scenario represents alternative characteristics of the future technology, with each alternative being based on certain assumptions and conditions. The forecaster evaluates the validity of the assumptions. The results of this evaluation are used to determine the scenario most likely to occur. We cannot predict the future, but we can invent it The best way to predict the future is to create it. These sayings are not identical in meaning, but I think they fit together naturally as a group. The quality of forecasts greatly depends on proper selection and application of appropriate method. We are still the masters of our fate. Rational thinking, even assisted by any conceivable electronic computors, cannot predict the future. All it can do is to map out the probability space as it appears at the present and which will be different tomorrow when one of the infinity of possible states will have materialized. Technological and social inventions are broadening this probability space all the time; it is now incomparably larger than it was before the industrial revolution—for good or for evil.